Theory of Change: Rethinking Theory of Change in Integrity Work

Theory of Change (ToC) is often referenced but rarely explained. In integrity and development circles, it’s a phrase that shows up in proposals, frameworks, and donor meetings—but too often remains abstract or misunderstood.

At its core, a Theory of Change is a structured way of asking: How do we believe change actually happens? It maps the path from where we are to where we want to be—linking actions to outcomes through clear, testable assumptions. This matters profoundly in integrity work, where change is slow, systems are complex, and interventions are often reactive.

  • Defines a long-term goal and maps the steps to get there

  • Makes causal links between actions and outcomes explicit

  • Highlights key assumptions that must hold true

  • Helps distinguish motion from progress

With limited time and resources, integrity professionals can’t afford to act blindly. A well-articulated ToC makes strategy visible, pressure points clearer, and learning possible.

 

 

From Activities to Outcomes: The Missing Link

 

Integrity work often emphasizes tools—reporting channels, investigations, trainings, sanctions. These are important, but on their own, they don’t always lead to meaningful impact. Without a Theory of Change, it’s easy to confuse output (e.g., number of trainings) with outcome (e.g., stronger ethical culture). ToC helps us ask: what do these tools build toward? And what needs to happen in between?

  • Moves focus from individual activities to system-wide change

  • Connects daily tasks to long-term goals

  • Prevents ‘checklist integrity’ where compliance is mistaken for culture

  • Encourages adaptive, rather than reactive, thinking

Rather than treating tools as isolated fixes, ToC frames them as part of a broader integrity journey. That shift changes how we define—and measure—success.

 

 

How Theory of Change Applies to Integrity Systems

 

When applied well, a Theory of Change transforms how integrity systems are designed and evaluated. It encourages professionals to look beyond misconduct as isolated incidents, and instead see patterns, pressure points, and institutional blind spots. Investigations are no longer just about fact-finding—they become opportunities to understand systems better and improve them. ToC makes this strategic lens visible.

  • Issues reveal vulnerabilities – Casework helps identify weak links and systemic gaps

  • Vulnerabilities inform prevention – Data is used to redesign controls and processes

  • Prevention strengthens culture – Risk mitigation evolves into value-driven practice

  • Culture sustains integrity – Accountability becomes embedded in norms, not just rules

By situating integrity work within an evolving change model, teams can better align resources with impact. It’s not just about fixing problems—it’s about building institutions that resist misconduct in the first place.

 

 

Common Pitfalls to Avoid

 

Despite its potential, Theory of Change is often misunderstood or misused. Many models end up as vague diagrams or donor requirements, disconnected from real operational decisions. Others are overly linear, missing the complexity and feedback loops that define most integrity work. The biggest risk? Treating ToC as a compliance product, rather than a strategic tool.

  • Models that are too broad or too rigid

  • Assumptions that go untested or unstated

  • Integrity components added late, rather than built in from the start

  • Lack of ownership—ToC sits with M&E, not operational teams

To be useful, a Theory of Change must live within the integrity function itself. It should inform decisions, evolve with new learning, and reflect how change actually happens in the messy middle.

 

 

Putting It Into Practice: A Roadmap for Integrity Teams

 

Theory of Change may sound like a conceptual planning tool, but in practice, it can be a powerful strategic asset for integrity teams. It helps move our work beyond case closure stats or reactive interventions and toward institutional learning and reform. When used well, it guides how we respond to patterns, prioritize prevention, and build accountability into the DNA of the organizations we serve.

 

Here’s how integrity teams can apply ToC thinking at different stages of the misconduct cycle:

  • Use cases to surface vulnerabilities: Every investigation, audit, or complaint is a window into broader system weaknesses—use them to spot recurring risks, not just resolve individual wrongdoing.

  • Translate findings into prevention: Feed case insights into risk assessments, training priorities, and policy reviews. A good ToC turns “lessons learned” into “lessons applied.”

  • Design interventions that shift behavior: Move beyond awareness-raising to address incentives, leadership signals, and informal norms that enable misconduct.

  • Measure what matters: Don’t stop at tracking case numbers—track whether the organization is becoming more resilient to misconduct over time.

When ToC becomes embedded in integrity work, success looks different. It’s no longer just about enforcement—it’s about whether the organization learns, adapts, and reduces harm going forward. That’s the real test of an effective integrity function.

 

 

Final Thoughts

 

Theory of Change isn’t just a planning tool—it’s a lens that helps us see complexity more clearly. In the integrity field, where wins are incremental and backlash is real, it offers a way to stay grounded in purpose. It’s not about knowing everything upfront, but about being honest about what we think will work—and being ready to adapt when it doesn’t.

 

If your organization is rethinking how it measures impact or wants to integrate integrity more strategically, we’d be happy to support. Whether through training, system reviews, or tailored Theory of Change design, STB Integrity helps organizations connect the dots between their mandate and long-term institutional change.

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Hi, I'm Sârra-Tilila!

I help international organizations and NGOs strengthen their integrity frameworks through internal policy development, tailored trainings, misconduct investigations, and dispute resolution. With over a decade of legal and investigative experience, I’ve worked extensively in Africa and collaborated with global giants like the World Bank and the World Food Programme.


My work is driven by a deep passion for tackling fraud and corruption while promoting transparency and accountability in international development. If you’re looking for expert support to achieve your organization’s integrity goals, let’s connect!

© 2022 par Sârra-Tilila Bounfour